[Particle-physics-affiliated] FW: BAE retreat - 5YP scenarios

[Oliver Stelzer-Chilton]

Dear Colleagues,

See below information from Petr about the main topic for the PSD retreat next week.

I have asked Petr about CFI proposals and connected resource needs, hiring plans and proposed centers as well.  He agrees, those should be discussed as well and I will try to get more information.

As planned, let’s have a first discussion this Thursday. Here is the indico, to be filled as more information becomes available.

https://indico.triumf.ca/event/539/

Best, Oliver

From: Petr Navratil <navratil at triumf.ca>
Date: Monday, May 13, 2024 at 7:48 PM
Cc: Lauren Gorman <lgorman at triumf.ca>
Subject: BAE retreat - 5YP scenarios
Hi All,

There was a high-level discussion of the next 5YP scenarios at the leadership retreat today. There are three scenarios emerging that I describe below.  We should discuss them at the next week BAE retreat. I envision that each department gives their updates and presents their future plans and in particular addresses impacts and preferences for the various scenarios. Anyway, let’s discuss more on Friday and by email.

Thanks,
Petr

******
Scenarios

  1.  $400M put to government
   Details submitted to government below
   BL1A - triplet exchanged at the end of the 5Y period unless CFI funding awarded


  1.  Shutdown for a year to finish ARIEL construction and get projects done
    Shutdown in 2026 (Dec 2025-April 2027)
                    BL1A - triplet exchanged during the year-long shutdown


  1.  Business as usual (as this year) -> ARIEL finished in 2028
   6 months shutdown – 6 months beam (Dec - May shutdown)
   BL1A - triplet exchanged

     Transformer replacement in all scenarios
     No new NRC positions in either scenario

    Things to focus on: What staff and resources needed for each scenario.

     There appears to be consensus among the divisions that finishing ARIEL is a very high priority.
********
Scenario

  1.  $400M put to government (“loss of opportunity”)

The objective in this scenario is to maintain existing science and innovation programs, including medical isotope production for commercial partners, although some impact will be required as staff are re-tasked to other areas. Components delayed are the operations of ARIEL and IAMI, which represents a major loss of opportunity on the international stage, as well as the loss of potential science. Risk is also escalated by deferring the beamline 1A refurbishment by two years, the failure of which would significantly impact materials and quantum science, green technology, and isotope production.

Changes from the requested funding level (i.e., $450M) and capabilities are primarily:

  *   Delay of ARIEL construction for two years, to the end of the five-year period. No operations of ARIEL during the five-year period, just commissioning. This defers the operation of ARIEL beyond the CERN long shutdown, missing an opportunity for Canada to provide global leadership in ISOL based discovery while a primary competing facility, ISOLDE at CERN, is shutdown.
  *   Deferral of IAMI operations for two years. Such a delay will impact the ability of IAMI to develop new life saving drugs and risks the reliability of production of medical isotopes. This will also impact potential future commercial revenue as it will naturally defer clinical trials of new drugs.
  *   Deferral of beamline 1A refurbishment by two years, halving the cost in this plan by extending the cost into the next funding cycle. This significantly increases the risk to the material science, quantum, and irradiation science programs should a major failure occur. It also increases the risk of production of actinium and commensurate potential impact on reputation and commercial revenues.
  *   Reduction in request by 57 staff to 444 staff average to just below the contemporary staffing plan. This reduction is a combination of reduced staff due to deferred implementation of the major infrastructure projects and a reorganisation to support operational excellence, with a commensurate loss of capability for the broader research ecosystem in science and engineering. This impacts our ability to fully support domestic and international projects with commensurate loss of impact and reputation.
  *   MRO costs remain the same, assuming all legacy and existing systems are operated at the same level of science capacity.
  *   Commercial revenue is assumed to be similar to the full request, contributing $20M to operational support over the 5-year period.
**********
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.triumf.ca/pipermail/particle-physics-affiliated/attachments/20240514/1a38c4d7/attachment-0001.html>